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Gold joined the global selloff in equities early this week but should regain its footing in an environment of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said this week in the bank’s monthly update.
Gold is still up ~18% YTD, aided by central bank buying, Asian consumers, and anticipated Fed rate cuts, and Manthey believes that after a consolidation phase, gold will maintain its upward momentum.
Central bank buying strength continues this year, and while gross purchases and sales are lower compared to the same period last year, Manthey expects central bank demand will remain strong looking ahead in the current economic climate and geopolitical tensions and as prices retreat from record highs.
The analyst also noted that funds have continued their recent streak of positive flows, as global gold ETFs have seen inflows for two months in a row following the strongest month since May 2023.
Geopolitics will remain one of the key factors driving gold prices… [and] the U.S. presidential election in November and the long-awaited U.S. Fed rate cut will also continue to add to gold’s upward momentum through to the end of the year,” Manthey wrote, forecasting gold to average $2,380/oz in Q3 and peaking in Q4 at $2,450/oz, resulting in an annual average of $2,301/oz.
Front-month Comex gold for August delivery (XAUUSD:CUR) ended the turbulent week +0.2% to $2,432.10/oz, but front-month August silver (XAGUSD:CUR) closed -2.7% to $27.487/oz for the week; on Friday, gold rose 0.4% while silver settled flat.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)
Gold remains a strong choice as a hedge amid turbulent geopolitics and battles with inflation struggling to move forward, SaxoBank’s Ole Hansen said, according to Dow Jones.
“We maintain a positive view on gold as a diversifier hedge against turmoil elsewhere,” Hansen said, and “if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, potentially as early as next month, interest rate-sensitive investors may return to gold via ETFs.”
